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Round 2 of recession? No one's counting on it Pittsburgh Tribune-Review

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Scott Baker doesn't worry about another economic plunge in 2011 -- a repeat of the Great Recession that began in late 2007.

"When did we exit the recession?" asked Baker, president of 5 Generation Bakers, a McKees Rocks company that makes Jenny Lee breads.

Economists and local business leaders said on Wednesday that despite wild stock market fluctuations, fears that government won't curb spending and Standard & Poor's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, there are stark differences in the economy from four years ago.

It could trudge along at a slow pace for the next year or more without another recession, the experts said.

"There is an increased risk of recession," said Richard Hoey, chief economist for BNY Mellon Corp., "but it's not clear to me that recession is more likely than a weak expansion."

While falling stock prices are a warning sign, "not all declines precede a recession," he said.

The Dow Jones industrial average has now lost more than 2,000 points in less than three weeks, and yesterday closed down 520 points, at 10,719.94, down 4.6 percent for the day.

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