Economic Analysis: Recovery continues to surge Baruch College The Ticker

22.08.11

It is 2011, and the recession is over. We have seen six consecutive quarters of GDP growth, the S&P 500 has returned over 18 percent since a year ago, and this month's Consumer Confidence Index is up from December.

January's unemployment rate, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, showed that the job market is improving, despite a still meager job outlook for adult women, teenagers, blacks and Hispanics.

Still, we are in the early half of a second round of quantitative easing, which the Federal Open Market Committee does not plan on ending early, despite such quantifiable economic improvements. This just goes to show, economic recovery is not about equity markets, but is about liquid credit markets.

And as mouth watering as an 18 percent annual market return might be, market portfolios are still down from the peak in 2007, with the rebound only recapturing 83 percent of losses. We're still in the trenches.

Looking back on the past few years, it is difficult to orient ourselves in the grander scheme of economic cycles. From AIG and Lehman, to , to European sovereign debt, there seems to be an element of ease that has returned to the market as we put old headlines behind us. Unlike 2009, 2010 was not just about bouncing back from an over pessimistic bear market.

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